Having a beer and knowing the score Pt II

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Friday October 29, 2004 · 10:02 PM PDT

2004/10/29 · 22:02

Part I was about Kerry hanging out in Mt. Horeb, WI at the time he was just starting to make his big push. This story is a return to WIsconsin, specifically the phenomenal rally this week. An interesting sidestory played out that I haven't seen recorded here that speaks to me about the spirit of this campaign. Read More

Kerry rally in Iowa tonight

nedog

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Wednesday October 27, 2004 · 11:14 PM PDT

2004/10/27 · 23:14

Tonight, my wife and I attended our first presidential candidate rally in 32 years (our last one was for McGovern in San Diego's Balboa Park). We were accompanied by about 10,000 of our closest friends:

To put it in perspective, this turnout was more than twice the size of Gore's margin of victory in Iowa in 2000. Read More

Rasmussen trends, two months later

nedog

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Tuesday October 26, 2004 · 10:39 PM PDT

2004/10/26 · 22:39

Back in July and August, I posted diary entries showing that, up to that point, Kerry was showing a slow but steady climb in the Rasmussen tracking poll relative to his opponent. A lot has happened in the meantime. Now, a week from the election, it is useful to return to that analysis to see where we've come... and, perhaps, where we are heading. Read More

TANG typewriter memos appear to have been typewritten

nedog

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Tuesday September 28, 2004 · 8:27 PM PDT

2004/09/28 · 20:27

The trouble with careful scholarly analysis is that it takes time.

Professor David Hailey, Director of the Interactive Media Research Laboratory at Utah State University, has written a paper titled "Toward Identifying the Font Used in the Bush Memos" that reports the results of a detailed examination of what can be gleaned from the CBS documents. The conclusions are very interesting.

nedog

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Monday September 27, 2004 · 10:49 AM PDT

2004/09/27 · 10:49

This is excerpted from a full story hidden at the bottom of ABC News The Note:

MT. HOREB, WI, Sept. 27 -- As the Packers' kickoff neared in Wisconsin, a familiar scene set inside Mt. Horeb's Main Street Pub. Twenty-five locals gathered along one long bar, some lunching on the "best burger in town" and perhaps testing the $1 "crappy beer of the day" before settling on one of four taps or a favorite of the 18 bottled beer selections....

nedog

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Wednesday August 18, 2004 · 2:14 PM PDT

2004/08/18 · 14:14

Kerry says that Bush's troop pullback plan undermines our security.

One meme; expressed in two modalities shown below. Read More

Rasmussen long-term trend revisited

nedog

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Tuesday August 17, 2004 · 10:56 PM PDT

2004/08/17 · 22:56

In an earlier diary entry, I analyzed the trend over several weeks of the difference in Kerry's and Bush's percentages on the Rasmussen Tracking Poll. That analysis revealed that, despite the noisiness of day-to-day fluctuations, in the long run Kerry was slowly and methodically pulling ahead. Four weeks have passed, and it is time to see whether or not that trend has held up. Read More

Showdown on the high plains

nedog

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Sunday August 01, 2004 · 11:48 AM PDT

2004/08/01 · 11:48

"Daschle is seen as the Darth Vader of American politics by conservatives,'' said Stephen Moore, president of the Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that has been running attack ads in South Dakota since last summer...

The New York Times Magazine has an interesting article by Sheryl Gay Stolberg titled Hunting Mr. Democrat on the efforts of the national Republican Party to defeat Tom Daschle in this year's Senate race. The article begins to explain the many ways that South Dakota politics fail to follow any simple script or stock formula. It also makes clear just how much the Republicans care about this election:

Toppling the Democratic leader would hand Bush and the Republicans a political trophy, the domestic equivalent of Saddam Hussein's pistol.

What makes this story more interesting than just a local contest that happens to have national implications is the peculiar nature of South Dakotan political dynamics. Read More

Last night: strength and wisdom

nedog

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Tuesday July 27, 2004 · 2:55 PM PDT

2004/07/27 · 14:55

Al Gore:
I want to say to all Americans this evening that whether it is the threat to the global environment or the erosion of America's leadership in the world, whether it is the challenge to our economy from new competitors or the challenge to our security from new enemies, I believe that we need new leadership that is both strong and wise.

Jimmy Carter:
I do not despair for our country. I believe tonight, as I always have, that the essential decency, compassion and common sense of the American people will prevail. And so I say to you and to others around the world, whether they wish us well or ill: do not underestimate us Americans. We lack neither strength nor wisdom.

Bill Clinton:
Their opponents will tell you to be afraid of John Kerry and John Edwards, because they won't stand up to the terrorists--don't you believe it. Strength and wisdom are not conflicting values--they go hand in hand. Read More

Rasmussen tracking trend - there is one

nedog

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Tuesday July 20, 2004 · 10:19 PM PDT

2004/07/20 · 22:19

Despite ourselves, it can be hard not to get elated or depressed over movements in Rasmussen's tracking poll, since it's the only one to provide a daily fix. Along with others, I have more than once cautioned against taking it to have any signal. Specifically, for weeks on end, both candidates had been within 3 points of 45%, which means that their individual movements were within the margin of error. But the conclusion that it is all just sampling noise turns out to have been incorrect, as the plot below reveals. Read More

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